This post was guest authored by Ben Rietmann, current master’s student in the UC Davis Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics. 

Trade Policy Uncertainty and California Agriculture

If there’s one word to describe U.S. trade policy in 2025, it’s uncertainty. Economists now estimate that trade policy is at an all-time high, even higher than during COVID-induced supply chain disruptions in 2020-2021.

Tariffs and bilateral trade deficits

After about a month of waiting to see whether the US would slap 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and additional tariffs on China, those import tariffs are finally here, and published in the Federal Register (Canadian, Chine

Setting the Stage

The US has announced 25% import tariffs to apply on most goods coming from Canada or Mexico. It’s unclear to me how long to expect these tariffs to remain in place (update: these tariffs, due to last minute negotiations, have been postponed for at least a month)  – prior comments by the Trump administration in the past have suggested that they are a negotiation tactic, but more recent comments suggest that these may be applied over a longer term.

Estamos emocionados de anunciar la fundación del Centro Económico UCCE, un consorcio entre economistas de extensión cooperativa en el sistema de Agricultura y Recursos Naturales de la Universidad de California (UC ANR), ubicados en los Departamentos de Economía Agrícola y de Recursos de la UC Berkeley y la UC Davis y la Escuela de Medicina Veterinaria de la UC Davis.